Oh, Greta!

Is global climate change real?

Yes. That’s an undeniable reality. Nothing is constant. Everything in the universe is in a constant state of flux.

Are humans causing climate change?

We can’t know. There are positive and negative feedback cycles on every scale and plenty of unknown unknowns. Anyone who thinks they have built an accurate mathematical model Earth’s climate is fooling themselves and anyone who believes them. Earth’s weather is an inconceivably complex system that we are not in a position to truly comprehend.

On the other hand, we do know that carbon-dioxide is a greenhouse gas and boy are we ever pumping as much of it into the atmosphere as we possibly can. We are like toddlers pushing on hard on a lever of an airplane in flight. There’s no way a toddler could understand the impact of such a thing and neither do we. We do know that similar activities usually don’t end well.

Can we stop this?

I believe that humanity is totally and utterly incompetent in such matters. We cannot stop war. We cannot stop crime. There are many diseases we can’t cure. These are complex problems with no simple solution.

We have a tragedy of the commons which is typically solved by a regulatory agreement. Unfortunately, climate treaties are a classic prisoner’s dilemma type problem. Anyone who cheats is heavily rewarded and cheaters are hard to detect. We don’t know the costs and benefits so we can’t ask governments to order their people to make huge sacrifices.

Does this mean it’s hopeless?

We have too much invested in our current fossil-fuel burning economy and we don’t have enough alternative technologies. We can’t make the necessary, drastic changes on a short timescale.

To go back to the toddler flying the plane, maybe something good will happen when we push on the lever. There could be some benefits.

• Without ice, the arctic would be navigable for trade making shipping more cost-effective and boosting the economy.
• More carbon dioxide could boost plant growth.
• Places with lousy, cold weather could become more pleasant and boost local agriculture.
• Just the attempt to avoid the release of carbon dioxide will result in technologies being developed that will help make our extremely precious fossil-fuels last longer.